Short-term prediction of the vertical total electronic content of the ionosphere using a local model and machine learning technology

A. O. Kupriyanov; D. A. Morozov; D. Zamogil'nyy

doi:10.30533/GiA-2025-010

VAK Russia 1.6.22 UDC 528.4 CSCSTI 36.23

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SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF THE VERTICAL TOTAL ELECTRONIC CONTENT OF THE IONOSPHERE USING A LOCAL MODEL AND MACHINE LEARNING TECHNOLOGY Short-term prediction of the vertical total electronic content of the ionosphere using a local model and machine learning technology

АА Аа

Published in Izvestia Vuzov. Geodesy and Aerophotosurveying · Volume 69, Issue 2 · Pages 8–22 · Rubric: Geodesy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30533/GiA-2025-010

Received: 15.11.2024 Accepted: 23.04.2025 Published: 30.04.2025 Language of publication: RUS

Authors

A. O. Kupriyanov

D. A. Morozov

D. Zamogil'nyy

A. O. Kupriyanov

D. A. Morozov

Rossiyskiy universitet transporta (MIIT) Russian Federation

D. Zamogil'nyy

ABSTRACT

The article presents the experimental testing results of the short-term ionospheric parameters forecasting technology based on machine learning. The basis for ionospheric parameters forecasting was data from global ionospheric maps and local ionospheric model. The model training and the formation of a data bank for training issues are considered in the paper. The authors also provide information about the software which was used for monitoring and short-term forecasting of ionospheric parameters (by using machine learning). The accuracy of the results obtained during the experimental testing of the ionospheric parameters forecasting technology is assessed. The technology considered in the article allows to be done for the selected local area: 1) creating a local model of short-term forecasting of ionospheric parameters based on machine learning; 2) modeling ionospheric parameters in a local area based on observations of the global navigation satellite system at IGS stations; 3) assessing the accuracy of short-term forecasting of the ionosphere using the input data of local modeling and the global ionospheric model. The results of the experiments showed that the shortterm ionospheric parameter forecast model trained on global ionospheric maps is capable of functioning on the basis of local ionospheric modeling data. Authors noted in the article that the standard deviation of the forecast increases by 0.468 TECU. This provides twice better accuracy as when using physical ionospheric models such as IRI-2016.

KEYWORDS

machine learning, GNSS Receivers, GNSS, monitoring of ionospheric parameters, ionospheric prediction, local ionospheric model

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Kupriyanov A. O., Morozov D. A., Zamogil'nyy D. Short-term prediction of the vertical total electronic content of the ionosphere using a local model and machine learning technology // Izvestia Vuzov. Geodesy and Aerophotosurveying. 2025. no. 2. pp. 8-22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30533/GiA-2025-010. (Date of access 08.10.2026).

MLA

A. O. Kupriyanov, Morozov D. A., Zamogil'nyy D.. "Short-term prediction of the vertical total electronic content of the ionosphere using a local model and machine learning technology." Izvestia Vuzov. Geodesy and Aerophotosurveying 69.2 (2025): 8-22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30533/GiA-2025-010.

APA

Kupriyanov A. O., Morozov D. A., Zamogil'nyy D. (2025). Short-term prediction of the vertical total electronic content of the ionosphere using a local model and machine learning technology. Izvestia Vuzov. Geodesy and Aerophotosurveying, 69(2), 8-22. https://doi.org/10.30533/GiA-2025-010

Chicago

A. O. Kupriyanov, Morozov D. A., Zamogil'nyy D.. "Short-term prediction of the vertical total electronic content of the ionosphere using a local model and machine learning technology." Izvestia Vuzov. Geodesy and Aerophotosurveying 69, no. 2 (2025): 8-22. https://doi.org/10.30533/GiA-2025-010.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Kupriyanov A. O., Morozov D. A., Zamogil'nyy D. | title = Short-term prediction of the vertical total electronic content of the ionosphere using a local model and machine learning technology | journal = Izvestia Vuzov. Geodesy and Aerophotosurveying | year = 2025 | volume = 69 | issue = 2 | pages = 8-22 | doi = 10.30533/GiA-2025-010 }}

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SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF THE VERTICAL TOTAL ELECTRONIC CONTENT OF THE IONOSPHERE USING A LOCAL MODEL AND MACHINE LEARNING TECHNOLOGY Short-term prediction of the vertical total electronic content of the ionosphere using a local model and machine learning technology

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